It hasn't been a year since the last significant winter weather event happened on our local landscape, producing several inches of snow in the tri-state and leaving layers of sleet in many other neighborhoods.
As we approach the one-year anniversary next week, some mid-range signals hint at a less impactful, but still possible, spurt of mixed precipitation for parts of the region Sunday morning.
Existing chilly air is expected to be reinforced over the weekend by another cold front Saturday night through Sunday morning. This will be at a time when a streak of upper-level energy causes a strip of showers to possibly develop in the Gulf through sections of the Southeast.
Showers and cold air are common, but there are things to consider before believing dreams of a whiteout of sorts would come true again:
- Forecast trends have been inconsistent for several days on how this streak would form and be capable of causing showers or more. There is no agreed-upon trend that would increase confidence in a winter-weather scenario.
- Moisture amounts will be generally limited, reducing chances for widespread or accumulating precipitation.
- Temperature trends would be marginally favorable for frozen precipitation to occur. That is, the coldest of the air in the lower atmosphere would likely come after the departure of the deepest moisture, what moisture would be generally available to begin with.
- We would need precise timing of the coldest air, the deepest moisture, and the appropriate time of day (likely morning) to encounter a round of wintry weather.
- Today is Wednesday, and the projected possible wintry weather is forecast to be more than 72 hours away. This naturally causes a lack of precision and makes it near impossible to give any exact expectations on possible outcomes, which currently range from light mixed precipitation with no accumulation to a totally dry situation with no precipitation happening locally.
The local National Weather Service, along with some computer-derived forecast data, show mixed or frozen precipitation chances in the tri-state region of less than 20%. As fresh data is received and processed, we will better understand the realistic chances for any showers, sleet, or snow that can come about from the weekend frontal system setup.
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