TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The First to Know Weather team will keep watch on a pattern this week that will bring up our local rain activity, but can also contribute to modest tropical development late this week around or east of the Florida peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center latched on to forecast data patterns Sunday morning, highlighting a zone of anticipated moisture lurking around the northern Gulf egion this week with a slight chance to further develop by the end of this week.
While the forecast trends are still being established, the overall trend supports the increase tropical moisture near our region combining with an approaching cold front my the middle of this week. This combination has been projected for several days by First to Know meteorologists to raise the coverage and development of occasional areas of showers, rain, and a few thunderstorms. This activity is not expected to be connected to a well-formed tropical low-pressure system.
As the moisture and front linger in the northeast Gulf later this week, low pressure development is possible and is shown to move east across the Florida peninsula toward the end of this week. As it is forecast to enter the western Atlantic over the July 4th weekend, some support for additional development is indicated.
There is no guarantee that a tropical disturbance will develop in the Gulf this week, and current trends have shown this zone of moisture being nudged south of the Big Bend by Independence Day.
It's a great time to remind folks that disturbances over tropical waters, in the right setup, can lead to hassles for Gulf and Atlantic coastal locations. While overall concerns about local effects remain quite limited, we'll remain diligent with the analysis of upcoming forecast trends related to this pattern in the Gulf waters.
--Casanova Nurse, Chief Meteorologist
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