Update:
July 6th, 5 p.m.:
Earlier today, Chantal made landfall in South Carolina as a Tropical Storm with 50 mph winds before quickly weakening to a Tropical Depression.
Chantal is continuing to move north-northeast at 10 mph and has wind speeds of 30 mph.
Tropical Depression Chantal is expected to continue to weaken before eventually breaking apart throughout the day Monday.
July 5th, 3:30 p.m.:
As of 2 p.m., Tropical Storm Chantal is slowly moving north at 3 mph and has a current wind speed of 45 mph.
The storm is expected to make landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds early Sunday morning.
We are still not expecting any major impacts to our local area. We may see the northerly wind collide with the sea breeze and pop up some showers along the coast, but that would be the extent.
July 5th, 8 a.m.:
Per the 8 a.m. advisory Tropical Storm Chantal has formed. The NHC says that parts of the Carolinas can expected to see impacts later on Saturday.
July 4th, 5:40 p.m.:
Tropical Depression Three has formed off of the coast of the Carolinas but is not expected to have major impacts to our area.
As of 5 p.m., the system has current sustained wind speeds of 35 mph and is slowly moving north at 2 mph.
This storm will be providing north-to-northheasterly winds for our area, not fueling a lot of storm activity.
That northerly wind could collide with our sea breeze and pop-up some showers, but not major impacts are expected.
Original:
The First to Know Weather team is keeping watch on a pattern this week that has brought up our local rain activity, but will also contribute to modest tropical development late this week around or east of the Florida peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center latched on to forecast data patterns Sunday and continues to highlight a zone of anticipated moisture — currently draped over the eastern Gulf — lurking around the the Florida peninsula and the western Atlantic waters late this week, with a trend that supports higher chance to further develop off the Florida First Coast over the weekend.
While the forecast trends are getting better consistency, the overall trend reflects the existing deep moisture clashing with a nearby front this holiday weekend. This combination has been projected for several days by First to Know meteorologists to raise the coverage and development of occasional areas of showers, rain, and a few thunderstorms. This activity — focused in eastern counties and near the coastal sea breeze — is not expected to be connected to a well-formed tropical low-pressure system.
As the moisture and front linger in the northeast Gulf through Friday, low pressure development is shown to meander and eventually move east across the Florida peninsula toward the weekend. As it is forecast to enter the western Atlantic over the July 4th weekend, some support for additional development is indicated there.
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf this week is not expected to happen, and current trends have shown this zone of moisture being nudged south and east of the Big Bend through Independence Day. A circulation off the east coast would enhance a general drying trend for the Big Bend and southwestern Georgia, lowering rain chances and keeping development confined to the coastal sea breeze and the I-75 corridor in the afternoons over the holiday weekend.
While adverse conditions are not expected locally from this system, it's a great time to remind folks that disturbances over tropical waters, in the right setup, can lead to hassles for Gulf and Atlantic coastal locations. While overall concerns about local effects are staying very limited, we'll remain diligent with the analysis of upcoming forecast trends related to this pattern.
--Casanova Nurse, Chief Meteorologist
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