First To Know Weather


Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/17/2022)

tropics check PTC 4
Gulf/Caribbean system formation chance (2pm 08/17/2022)
Posted at 4:06 PM, Aug 17, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-17 18:37:59-04
Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/17/2022)

The only system that has shorter-range potential for development is situated just east of Belize in the waters of the western Caribbean Sea. The moisture wave will cross the land near the Yucatan Peninsula and then reach the waters of the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where a window of opportunity exists for the system to gain some organization before affecting the coastline of Mexico south of the Rio Grande River this weekend.

Other disturbances continue to have a presence in the eastern tropical Atlantic, but it will be some time before any of them acquire enough development to warrant tropical depression formation concerns.

Nonetheless, some long-range signals suggest tropical systems can gain further strength next week. No reliable source of forecasting models or guidance can depict a precise amount of strength or specific location of any of these systems beyond seven days in advance. Therefore, keep a proper perspective and a healthy level of skepticism of any long-range outlook forecasting an exact storm outcome projected toward the end of the month or later.