TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Friday brings us our last mostly calm day for weather. Partly to mostly cloudy skies fill in overhead. Just like the midweek days, no rain is expected, but it could be breezy at times. The only ones impacted will be the Santas and snowmen and snowwoman blow up yard decorations blowing around.
Saturday we watch a low developing out in the Gulf. This system is complex, so forecasting impacts will be just as complex.
What we know now: a low will form in the Gulf and move through parts of Florida bringing heavy rain, gusty wind, rough surf, potential isolated coastal flooding, and severe storms.
Keep in mind, where this low tracks will be where these impacts will occur. Just like we talk about with any kind of cyclonic-like activity (low pressure), the areas north and east of this system will see the strongest winds.
The low is either going to track through the Big Bend or closer to the Nature Coast down to Tampa.
To end the week, we have been showing and describing forecast impacts for the low to move through the Big Bend. This is where I would say the low is more likely to track based on different dynamics with complexity of this system. This is also, unfortunately for weekend plans, where the most widespread impacts will occur.
For our area we can expect: heavy rain, gusty wind (especially along the Franklin county coastline), rough surf, and isolated coastal flooding.
The timing of the highest impacts will be when most of us are sleeping (before sunrise Sunday morning).
Severe threats look to stay to our south- down the peninsula. A stray stronger storm cannot be ruled out for the very southern tip of Taylor County, but most severe threats stay in Dixie County and south.
Early Sunday AM impacts for our area as low's path tracks now:
High winds along coastline- up to 40-45 MPH gusts
Gusty winds inland- up to 30-35 MPH gusts
Heavy rain through Big Bend- up to 2-3"
Now if this system moves to the east and the path takes the low through the Nature Coast, we could still see widespread moisture, but wind gust and flooding impacts will be much lower.
We will keep you up-to-date online and on-air with any changes and immediate threats to your neighborhood.