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Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (09/20/2023)

Atlantic basin disturbance formation chance (4pm 09/20/2023)
Atlantic basin disturbance formation chance (4pm 09/20/2023)
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A disturbance coming off the west coast of Africa will have room to grow and move over the next week in the tropical eastern North Atlantic waters. The system continues to be pegged at a high chance for further development into a tropical depression. Current trends show it following a west-northwest path while still well over 1,000 miles from the Lesser Antilles, so it does not appear to threaten land for several more days.

A stalled front over the Florida peninsula is being affected by swift upper-level winds Wednesday. A broad upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to form and move parallel to the Florida east coast Thursday and Friday. While it will generate clouds and some rain for the Atlantic shoreline, there won't be many adverse effects experienced in the Big Bend. Passing clouds and showers are possible Thursday, along with a gentle breeze from the northeast. A subtropical or tropical depression can form later in the week as it moves north along the Gulf Stream waters of the westernmost North Atlantic.

No Gulf or western Caribbean systems are anticipated to develop through early next week, so conditions around the Big Bend will remain uneventful, tropically speaking.