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Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/24/2022)

Atlantic disturbance formation chance (2pm 08/24/2022)
East Atlantic disturbance formation chance (2pm 08/24/2022)
Posted at 4:02 PM, Aug 24, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-24 18:26:17-04
Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/24/2022)

Sections of the tropical Atlantic basin continue to have waves of moisture and unsettled weather sprouting up. None of these features will quickly turn into organized tropical systems through Friday, but they do have modest chances to eventually become stronger and better formed.

A disturbance is still over the west side of Africa and will enter the easternmost tropical North Atlantic later this week. Long-range trends show the system overcoming a layer of drier air and gaining some strength over the weekend or early next week. It's thousands of miles from the U.S. mainland, affording ample time to monitor its efforts to develop.

A stretched-out moisture source will approach the lower Windward Islands in the next couple of days, moving west-northwest into the Caribbean this weekend. Forecast indicators show a reasonable chance for the system to gather strength gradually early next week over warm waters with light winds aloft. Extended projections show the disturbance generally keeping a west-northwest track, but there is low confidence in location and strength expectations beyond the middle of next week.

No reliable source of forecasting models or guidance can depict a precise amount of strength or specific location of any of these systems, especially beyond seven days in advance. Therefore, keep a proper perspective and a healthy level of skepticism of any long-range outlook forecasting an exact storm outcome over the Labor Day weekend. We will keep you in the know about changing developments of these and other tropical systems.