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Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/16/2023)

Posted at 6:21 PM, Aug 16, 2023
and last updated 2023-08-16 22:03:55-04
Atlantic disturbances formation chances (10pm 08/16/2023)

There are no significant tropical-related impacts foreseen for the Big Bend region over the next seven days. However, there are zones of general interest, one of which can affect our rain chances early next week.

A yet-developed areas of weak low pressure is forecast to move from the eastern Greater Antilles or the Bahamas westward this weekend, gathering available tropical moisture and causing a surge in moisture levels for parts of the Florida peninsula. The closer this wave of moisture gets to the Big Bend will dictate how much of an increase in rain coverage can be experienced. But, since this a system that (as of Wednesday evening) hasn't even formed yet, we can't be overly precise about what to expect from it. Data analysis shows it remaining quite weak and non-threatening to us in terms of a tropical depression or storm status, but as it's projected to move into the western Gulf steadily early next week, some further development is possible in that region.

Two other disturbances in the distant eastern side of the Atlantic have reasonable chances to grow stronger, but they are expected to turn north long before coming close to the U.S. east coast. They'll also run into areas of drier air, which can inhibit any rapid intensification efforts.