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Weather disturbance shows signs of slow tropical development

Forecast in Focus (GFS 7 day accumulated rain forecast)
Weather Disturbance Shows Signs of Slow Tropical Development
Posted at 11:34 AM, May 21, 2018
and last updated 2018-05-21 08:00:48-04

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- It's not Hurricane Season yet, but that doesn't mean we can't see early development before June. We've seen it the last three years and there is a chance the streak goes to four. Here's what we know:

There is an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean that models have been latching on to now for a few days, showing potential development and Gulf of Mexico impacts.

This is associated with a large plume of tropical moisture that is forecast to continue to bring widespread rains all across Florida and Georgia and a good chunk of the southeast. 

Right now, it has a near 0% chance of developing within 48 hours (2 days) and a 20% chance of developing within 120 hours (5 days). We can't tell where the system will ultimately end up. Model runs have varied widely on movement with this system with some bringing a closed low directly to us, some bringing a tropical cyclone to Louisiana, and some bringing a broad trough into Florida.

Regardless of what it develops into, one thing is highly likely: Significant rains are expected all across the southeast, and this includes the Big Bend and South Georgia.

Until clearer signs of development and movement take shape, there is not much else to add at this time aside from speculation.