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Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/30/2022)

Atlantic disturbance formation chance (2pm 08/30/2022)
Atlantic disturbances formation chances (2pm 08/30/2022)
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Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/30/2022)

There is still a good chance to have a named tropical storm form in the Atlantic waters between now and Labor Day weekend, but the good news for the Big Bend region is that any sort of tropically disturbed weather won't be heading our way through that time.

The Caribbean area of moisture has struggled to maintain its form and is essentially just a wave of moisture without low-pressure development. It'll be monitored for its influence on raising flooding risks along the western shoreline of the Gulf, but an organized tropical low is not expected at this point.

The Atlantic system a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has the highest chance to turn into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Development over the next two to three days will be hindered by stronger upper-levels winds and a patch of dry air in its path. Most forecast trends take the system on a eventual northwesterly path, then turning it to the north over Atlantic waters and a reasonable distance from the U.S. east coast. This projection would greatly minimize risks to the east coast, but can agitate the waters along the beaches of the east coast over the weekend.

A second system in the far eastern side of the tropical North Atlantic has long-range development potential and plenty of time to track its development stages and its movement.