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Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/23/2022)

Atlantic system formation chance (2pm 08/23/2022)
East Atlantic system development chance (2pm 08/23/2022)
Posted at 4:08 PM, Aug 23, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-23 19:03:18-04
Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/23/2022)

Various disturbances are scattered around the open waters of the southern latitudes of the tropical North Atlantic.

A system that was being tracked for a few days has lost much of its development potential, and has an extremely limited chance for future strengthening.

A second wave that is still over the African continent will steadily move west into the Cape Verde region of the Atlantic, where some organization is possible to occur toward the end of this week.

Lastly, a wave of moisture just northeast of Guyana in South America is being identified as a disturbance with about a 20% chance to develop into a better-forming tropical system by this weekend. It is forecast to move west-northwest into the Caribbean, where upper winds are lighter and very dry air is quite limited, a combination that would usually support development efforts of a tropical disturbance. Currently available forecast guidance is inconsistent in extended-range trends with no reliable outcome to make this far out in time.

None of these presently pose a risk to the Big Bend region, but the future Caribbean low has the best chance to have effects on the southern Gulf if further development occurs.