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Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/15/2023)

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Atlantic disturbances formation chances (10pm 08/15/2023)

The main focus in the tropics through early next week will be how much development two tropical disturbances near the Cape Verde region can undergo. They're over zones of warm water, but forecast to move into an area where the air is still quite dry north and east of the Lesser Antilles. Long-range track guidance suggests gradual turn of these systems to the northwest next week before they reach the North American continent, but there's still a considerable margin of error in forecast data that extends beyond one week.

Forecast data also indicate a weak trough of lower pressure near the Greater Antilles this weekend moving steadily west-northwest near the island of Cuba and through the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Indications of further development early next week are faint and inconsistent, but future forecast trends will be noted and monitored.

Currently, none of these systems are raising levels of concern for the local area. But, as we go into late August and September when tropical activity generally increases, we'll check in on each disturbance and advise of their forecasts frequently.