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Tuesday evening First to Know Tropics check (06/25/2024)

Caribbean disturbance formation chance (4pm 06/25/2024)
Posted at 4:14 PM, Jun 25, 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A fast-moving moisture source is scooting west-northwest across the southern waters of the Caribbean Sea, just north of the Venezuelan coastline. Its rapid motion would hinder development efforts in the near-term. Once the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late this week, conditions can support some strengthening. Whatever becomes of it is forecast to stay well south of our area, and does not pose a risk for the northeastern Gulf.

A distant disturbance is coming off the western coast of Africa. It's not impossible to have tropical waves in that region, but it is early in the season for future tropical lows to originate there. There is massive dry and dusty air in the path of the disturbance and any prospects of development are far ahead in the future where precise expectations are impossible to make.