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Tropics check: Two development zones, no local worries (06/13/2024)

Gulf disturbances formation chances (4pm 06/12/2024)
Posted at 4:04 PM, Jun 12, 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The spin of low pressure off the east coast of Florida this morning is projected to move off the coast of the Carolinas and into the western Atlantic waters through late this week. The system will keep causing periods of heavy rain for the southern half of the Florida peninsula. Any future development of the low will be over Atlantic waters as the system pulls away from the Florida east coast. The low currently has a low 20% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.

Another batch of tropical moisture will gather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche this weekend, where June tropical systems tend to originate. The pattern next week supports the moisture moving west to northwest (away from our region) with some modest formation chances. As of 2 am EDT there is a 40% chance of tropical development in the western Gulf over the next 7 days.

Either system has a chance to become the season's first tropical depression, but neither will have direct effects on the Big Bend area.