TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Update 6-18
8:00 a.m.
As of the 8 a.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center is tracking the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur which has the possibility to redevelop once it enters the open waters of the Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas.
Next 48 hours: 10% chance of development
Next 7 days: 10% chance of development
The system is currently tracking northeast through Mississippi at around 10-15 mph providing significant rainfall throughout its track. Local impacts remain at scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Significant impacts from the remnants are not expected even if redevelopment occurs.
Update 6-18 3:45 a.m.
As of late Wednesday night, Arthur has been downgraded to a Post-Tropical Cyclone after a brief period of Tropical Storm strength. The system made landfall in Texas Wednesday afternoon and is making its way towards Louisiana Thursday morning.
The system will continue to weaken as it moves inland and become a rain maker. Locally, we will see the outer remnants through Thursday afternoon. This will provide heavy downpours for some with isolated storms capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Both south Georgia and the Big Bend are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of seeing severe weather Thursday afternoon.
Update 6-17 11:00AM:
Our first Tropical Storm of the season has formed this morning.
The peak winds are at 40 mph, and likely wont build anymore before making landfall around Houston through this afternoon.
Update 6-17 5:00AM:
Tropical Depression one hasn't gained any strength since fully arriving into the warmer waters of the gulf. It is still expected to become Tropical Storm Arthur, but now it likely wont until right before landfall.
In order to achieve landfall, half of the eye must be over land. This looks to be around Houston now instead of the Texas Louisiana border.
The storm surge in these areas could be as high as 4ft.
Update 6-16 7:00PM:
The primary effect this possible tropical system will have in the Southeastern U.S. through the end of this week will be generous amounts of rain which can become excessive and trigger flooding in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. This system will have a narrow window of opportunity along the Texas coast and adjacent Gulf waters for any formal development. It will remain a moisture-laden, disorganized system as it moves northeast toward the Mississippi Delta region later this week, and the Tennessee Valley by the end of the week.
Locally, we will continue with the feed of deep moisture to fuel times of showers and storms. Tonight's local rain and storms are not directly connected to the tropical disturbance. By Thursday, local wind flow will be southwesterly, and some enhancement in atmospheric winds can support a few stronger or severe thunderstorms, particularly in the Panhandle and the tri-state regions.
Update 6-16 12:00PM:
As of 11:00 A.M. this morning the system is just a potential tropical cyclone, with winds around 30mph.
By tonight this will likely become our first tropical depression, and then by tomorrow morning, our first tropical storm of the season. This will be named Arthur, and will not have a lot of time to gain strength before it makes landfall at the border between Texas and Louisiana.
The storm surge could reach as high as 4 feet at the time of landfall which will be around 8pm, then it will quickly break apart becoming remnants that will drop a ton of rain as it collides with a frontal system.
Update 6-16 5:00AM:
As of this morning the trough of low pressure centered around the Mexico Texas border has a higher chance of developing into the first Tropical Storm of our season.
As of now it is not expected to stay in the Gulf long enough to develop into a hurricane before it makes its way into Louisiana.
The only risk for us here at home is the remnants of that system merging with a stationary front. This could increase the rain chances for the entire south east closer to the end of the week.
Original 6-15:
Vast moisture stretching from northern Mexico through the upper Texas coastline is connected to a weak low-pressure system near the Rio Grande valley. This feature is garnering attention because of its former status as a Pacific tropical storm, and its existing opportunity to re-generate into a tropical depression in the far western Gulf waters.
What bearing does the disturbance have on our local weather here in the Big Bend? Ultimately, not much.
Nonetheless, we are monitoring how much influence its moisture source will have on heavy rain and thunderstorm opportunities here for later in the week.
Regardless of what form the disturbance takes, even if it doesn't become a tropical depression off the Texas or Louisiana coast, it will bring inches of rain into western Gulf states through midweek, causing higher concerns for local river and flash flooding.
What's left of the disturbance will combine with a lingering stationary front in the interior of the Deep South, enhancing rain coverage in areas like Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia beyond midweek.
Locally speaking, we are forecast to be on the southern fringe of the frontal zone as the disturbance rides along the front to our north. We will encounter some of its moisture in the form of occasional showers, rain, and some thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. They are anticipated to be scattered but can contribute to locally higher rainfall totals.
We are also monitoring the chance for isolated strong thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, though those chances at this point are limited. Occasional rain activity will continue into Friday and portions of the weekend, though the effects from the disturbance will be lessened by that time frame.
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