First To Know Weather


Tropics Check: Rainy times along Gulf Coast this week with moisture, weak disturbance

Gulf tropical formation chance (2pm 07/12/2022)
Posted at 3:56 PM, Jul 12, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-12 18:20:46-04
Tuesday evening First To Know Tropics check (07/12/2022)

Moisture gathered along the northern side of the Gulf of Mexico continues to promote broader rain potential along the nearby coastal zones around and east of the Mississippi River region Tuesday evening.

The area of moisture is connected to a weak and disorganized area of low pressure, set to wander around the central Gulf region over the next few days.

While the Gulf waters are warm, the system will occasionally straddle the coastline. Upper-level winds are light, but are forecast to increase by the end of the week as a cold front approaches from the north.

It is not a foregone conclusion that a tropical depression or storm will develop from this area of unsettled conditions.

Regardless of strengthening efforts, the system will create opportunities for soaking rain along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend regions through the weekend. Rain totals through Sunday can reach two to four inches, with locally higher amounts closer to the center of the disturbance.

Seas can be rougher and breezes offshore can be faster, but overall impacts are expected to be limited.

There is still room and time for slight pattern shifts, which can change the outcome of the system's evolution. The First to Know weather team will keep analyzing the latest forecast data and trends in the days to come.