Update
Oct. 20; (11 p.m.)
Development chances have now risen to 90% for both 48 hours and the next 7 days. A tropical depression will most likely come of this system Tuesday or Wednesday once it stalls over the warm waters of the Caribbean.
Spaghetti models continue to show a turn to the north east and eventually out into the open waters, but it is still to early to rely on that exact path.
However, as of right now, there is still no threat to the Big Bend or South Georgia.
Original
Some outlets are reporting on an "unsurvivable" hurricane making landfall, this is not true. Here is what you do need to know:
A tropical wave, designated Invest 98L, in the Caribbean is starting to show signs of slow development. The wave is moving westward quickly, which will limit its formation in the short term. However, once it slows over the central Caribbean, it will likely form into Tropical Depression Thirteen. From that point, it could strengthen into a tropical storm, with the next name being Melissa.
Development chances have risen to 50% over the next 48 hours, and 80% over the next 7 days.
Spaghetti models have the system turning into the Caribbean islands, then potentially, out to sea. At this time, there is no threat to the Big Bend or South Georgia. Long-range models are not in full agreement yet, but we will continue to keep you updated both online and on-air.
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