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Tropics Check: Gulf coast front lurks near warm waters; development possible

Gulf tropical formation chance (4pm 07/11/2022)
Posted at 3:59 PM, Jul 11, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-11 16:11:17-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A slow-moving frontal zone hovering around the Gulf coast Monday will become the focus for the chance of slow development of a tropical disturbance later this week.

A disorganized low-pressure swirl is drifting from the Emerald Coast of Florida over the very warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast trends suggest the low will further gather moisture off the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline through midweek, aided by the warm water temperatures and relatively lighter upper-level winds.

Regardless of future strengthening, the system is likely to continue pumping moisture all along the eastern half of the Gulf region, keeping higher rain chances in the outlook. That will be the primary effect experienced by the system for the Big Bend specifically.

A stronger system can generate rougher seas and promote breezy or squally conditions for areas closest to the developing low.

There are many factors that will cause the outlook to change and shift over the next few days. No reliable scenarios, though, are indicating a quick-developing strong tropical storm or hurricane.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic basin remains void of any potential development spots through this week.