Update
July 15, 8 a.m.;
A 40% chance of development remains in place as Invest 93L begins to make its way westward through Florida.
Local impacts remain minimal with this system as localized downpours and gusty winds are possible.
Wind gusts of 20-25mph are expected Wednesday afternoon, mainly for coastal neighborhoods as the wind will be shifting to south/southeasterly.
The system remains disorganized, but is expected to become more organized once it is over the warm waters of the Gulf.
July 15, 2 a.m.;
The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 93L a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.
The cluster of thunderstorms is still located off of the east coast of Florida, but expected to move west across the state Tuesday.
Development continues to be possible once the system enters the Gulf, however, local threats remain low.
The most we are expected to see at this time is heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Original
The zone of disorganized tropical moisture is swirling a few dozen miles off the central Florida east coast late Monday night. There's not much expectation in the next day or two for it to strengthen with low pressure, but the concentrated moisture is expected to remain intact.
Forecast trends suggest it will move west, over the through the northern half of the Florida peninsula, Tuesday and Wednesday morning, reaching the eastern Gulf waters at midweek.
This path would bring times of downpours to the peninsula of Florida Tuesday. It will also influence an eventual shift in local winds, becoming southeast late Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting a pickup in the amount of scattered showers and storms for the Big Bend and southernmost Georgia Wednesday and Thursday.
The peak local effects from this system — unlikely to be anything strong or significant — will be encountered in the form of periods of rain and modest wind gusts over marine areas that will be below tropical storm level winds. About one to two inches of rain are possible. Rain action is not expected to be continuous Wednesday and Thursday, but more intermittent and briefly heavy. Severe weather chances will be low.
Nearby high pressure will guide the system steadily to the west beyond Wednesday. As the disturbance moves over the warm northern Gulf waters, amid a light upper-level wind pattern, some organization is expected to occur. When this happens, the system will be well west of our region, focused more on the central Gulf Coast.
If it turns into a tropical storm later this week, it will be named Dexter. Broader effects from the system are possible in the lower Mississippi River region and sections of Louisiana.
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