MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The circulation of low pressure, tracked for nearly a week in the Atlantic basin, has created bursts of rain and storms, but the system remains disorganized and not in a great state of well-being.
The low continued to straddle the northern edge of the Greater Antilles islands, including Hispaniola and Cuba, in a zone of very warm water temperatures. Upper-level winds are still having a slightly destructive effect on the development of rain and storms, effectively inhibiting the moisture from wrapping around the central low-pressure circulation. As long as this continues, efforts to strengthen will continue to be stalled.
This means periods of rain are still likely for portions of south Florida this weekend, with occasional breezes, but significant intensification is unlikely before reaching the peninsula.
There's still general agreement in the forecast track guidance in the system reaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where, again, waters are still quite warm, and the upper-air environment is relatively calmer. As it stands now, this location by early next week holds the best chances for the low to attain better organization and perhaps reach tropical depression or tropical storm levels.
The high pressure system still in place over the Carolinas may shift its position, but is possibly still a big player in keeping the low moving west-northwest. A chance for a sharper turn to the north is possible if the high-pressure area moves off the U.S. East Coast.
Some of the recent forecasts from computer models for a stronger system have finally taken into account the recent and current struggles of the system, and have reflected a weaker storm reaching the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Further intensification would be probable by that time.
FACT: The tropical low is still poorly organized, but capable of forming periods of heavy rain in some of the islands in the Caribbean and Bahamas.
FACT: Rain is still likely for south Florida this weekend, but a landfalling, organized, stronger tropical system for that region is not.
FACT: Current forecast data indicate the system moving into the southeastern Gulf early next week after moving near or through south Florida.
FACT: Eastern Gulf water temperatures are well above 80° and sufficient to fuel a strengthening cycle of any tropical low.
FACT: Great uncertainty remains regarding how far west the system can continue to go, or how soon or late a turn to the north can occur.
FACT: It's a good idea to monitor developments of this system over the weekend. Direct impacts locally are not expected through Sunday, but if tendencies start showing a sharper turn toward the northern Gulf Coast, chances for local impacts may increase.
