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Thursday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/17/2023)

Atlantic disturbance formation chances (5pm 09/11/2023)
Atlantic basin disturbances formation chances (5pm 08/17/2023)
Posted at 5:36 PM, Aug 17, 2023
and last updated 2023-08-17 17:36:03-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A few systems in the tropical Atlantic basin have chances for future strengthening, but none of them will be of major concern to the Big Bend and nearby regions.

Two eastern North Atlantic disturbances are poise to build over the next several days. A zone of dry air north of them will hinder development efforts, but next week, these systems can overcome the dryness and turn into organized tropical depressions or storms. All indications show these areas staying in the Atlantic waters, but future trends will be checked for any changes.

A wave of moisture near Hispaniola will move west-northwest steadily over the next few days, leading it into the Florida peninsula this weekend and the Gulf by Monday. It will be in a weak and disorganized form, not anticipated to strengthen when it passes to the south of our region Monday. Beyond that time, the disturbance has an improved chance for some development into a depression in the central and western Gulf of Mexico around the middle of the week. Based on this thinking, the main effects this would have on the Big Bend would be a slight uptick in rain chances, but nothing extraordinary in terms of rain or wind.