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Thursday evening First To Know Tropics check (07/20/2023)

Atlantic disturbance development chance (4pm 07/20/2023)
Don forecast track (5pm 07/20/2023)
Posted at 4:37 PM, Jul 20, 2023
Thursday evening First To Know Tropics check (07/20/2023)

Tropical Storm Don is forecast to move west, then northwest, over the open waters of the northern Atlantic, where it will not have effects on land through its life span.

Patches of moisture and a disturbance embedded in them won't create development issues for a few days, but the ragged low-pressure system well east of the Lesser Antilles continues to have long-term signs of modest development. It will encounter drier air and stronger upper-level winds which should hinder quick strengthening through the weekend. However, the area of interest has a decent chance to be a highlighted "invest" system in the next few days, which would trigger more forecasting analysis and better gauge its chances to turn into a depression down the road.