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Sunday Evening First To Know Tropics check (06/16/2024)

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Posted at 6:08 PM, Jun 16, 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A low pressure system has formed in the southern Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is moving into a favorable environment for tropical development over the next few days. However, a high pressure system over the northeast region of the United States has set up a strong easterly flow over the southeast, which will keep this system from approaching our area. Instead, tropical moisture will move north-northwestward in the western Gulf of Mexico, resulting in increased rainfall for parts of Texas and Mexico. This system has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours, with odds for development increased to 70% over the next 7 days.

Another area of tropical moisture will organize early to mid-week in the open waters of the Atlantic south of Bermuda. The same high pressure system currently over the Northeast portion of the United States will direct this tropical moisture westward towards the east coast of Florida by the middle to end of the week. Over this time, atmospheric conditions will be at least somewhat favorable for tropical development. While development odds remain low at this time, 30% of the next 7 days, this tropical moisture could help increase rain chances in the Big Bend and South Georgia later this week into next weekend.

Stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather as we update this forecast and fine-tune rain chances for the end of this week.