New updates on all models have completely changed the previous forecast predictions. Monday and Tuesday show stronger warming trends as a strong trough deepens immensely over the Mississippi River Valley. It looks to gather support from a strong upper level low that originated from the Southern Californian coast line through the Mid West towards the great lakes. A secondary Low seems to form over the great lakes and take over the front moving into Wednesday night through Thursday morning. NWS comments about how GFS indicates a weakening trend within the south end of the front, but new models however are indicating widespread heavy rainfall through the panhandle starting Wednesday morning and lasting through the night. That being said, this is just the GFS showing that most force lifting occurs towards the north of the viewing area. NAM, NAVY and even the Euro 00z show that this energy will stay towards the south end of the trough which would push the chance for widespread severe weather up for the Big Bend. If this does occur, winds gusts, lightning, and possibly hail will be our major concerns. As much as I like the GFS both 1200UTC and 1800UTC for fronts, I cannot ignore that all the other models are currently coinciding with each other so I am going to mention that Wednesday will be more of a rain and thunderstorm event. Either way, there will be a sufficient amount of rainfall for the area predictions between 0.10 to 0.75 inches within a 24hr period. By Thursday late morning the front will have passed and a weak area of high pressure takes over with temps dropping back to seasonable levels. Highs in the 60s and lows in the low to upper 30s with help from a cooler air mass and mild CAA. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky conditions through the weekend.
