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Saturday Evening First To Know Tropics check (06/15/2024)

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Posted at 11:28 PM, Jun 15, 2024

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A channel of moisture is forecast to produce waves of disturbed weather in the far western Caribbean and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of this weekend and the upcoming work week. Occasional systems will ride northwest, embedded in the moisture feed. Locally, a zone of high pressure northeast of us will direct that moisture flow more to the northwest, meaning any disturbances that form will stay in the western half of the Gulf region and not create any enhanced hazards here through the middle of next week. As of Saturday evening at 8 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center has increased the odds for tropical development in the region to 60% over the next 7 days.

Another area of tropical moisture will organize mid-week in the open waters of the Atlantic south of Bermuda. A high pressure system currently over the Northeast portion of the United States will move over the northern Atlantic and help direct this tropical moisture westward towards the east coast of Florida by the end of the week. Over this time, atmospheric conditions will be at least somewhat favorable for tropical development. While development odds remain low at this time, 20% of the next 7 days, this tropical moisture could help increase rain chances in the Big Bend and South Georgia later this week into next weekend.

There are no immediate tropical concerns for our area, however hurricane season preparations should be completed as we head into a potentially active season.