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Storm Team Sunday evening Forecast Discussion 1/06/2013

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Posted at 3:23 PM, Jan 06, 2013
and last updated 2013-01-06 10:35:18-05

 

Within the past 48 hrs temps and weather models have changed drastically. Light rainfall looks to subside for the most part from the warm front tonight shifting towards the south and setting up shop over central Florida while a short upper level trough exits eastern Tennessee towards the Virgina's. A mild ridge digs in from the plains over the southeast. This looks to keep the front within central Florida towards the south however moisture content looks moderate for the area Monday through Tuesday. This looks to be enough to keep in some cloud cover and perhaps a drizzle or two to the coastal areas or just off the bays. Temps from MOS, and NAM indicate a large climb in both lows and highs by Tuesday as ridging becomes stronger through the Panhandle. We will keep temps above average for the rest of the outlook. having highs increase to the low 70s and overnight lows in the low and mid 50s. Upper level low off the coast of Mexico was expected to shift northeast keeping rain chances high into Wednesday night; now, those 1800/1200 GFS and NAM models indicate a North/Northeast track with a through breaking away from the Panhandle Wednesday with minor rainfall. I'm calling it a 30% rain chance Wednesday with potential for isolated weak thunderstorms due to the sufficient heating we will have across the south. As this trough shifts east, we are back to a mildly stable environment. Again Water vapor doesn't show any signs of heavy drying leading me to keep almost a summer like weather pattern over the Big bend Thursday through Sunday. 20% chance for showers or isolated weak thunderstorms with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.