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Monday evening First To Know Tropics check (09/18/2023)

Atlantic disturbance formation chance (2pm 09/18/2023)
Atlantic disturbance formation chance (5pm 09/18/2023)
Posted at 5:46 PM, Sep 18, 2023

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The Cape Verde phase of the hurricane season remains active Monday evening, as an anticipated wave moving from the African continent is projected to encounter favorable conditions for a tropical depression to form within the next three to seven days in that region of the eastern tropical Atlantic. Long-range indications show it maintaining a move to the west or west-northwest through this weekend.

An upper-level disturbance related in part to a stalled front over the Florida peninsula is forecast to generate an area of broad low pressure off the eastern Florida coast later this week. Tendencies for it to build some organization slowly as it moves to the north are noted in Monday's forecast data. This system doesn't threaten the Big Bend region, but the circulation around it can propel drier air into the western side of our region this weekend while low-end rain chances are possible in the Suwannee River Valley, along with manageable gentle breezes from time to time.

No disturbances are forecast to affect the Gulf waters in the next seven days.