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Monday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/29/2022)

Caribbean disturbance formation chance (2pm 08/29/2022)
Atlantic disturbances formation chances (2pm 08/29/2022)
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Posted at 6:41 PM, Aug 29, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-29 18:41:04-04
Monday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/29/2022)

The Caribbean tropical disturbance still carries plenty of moisture into the western side of the sea, but it hasn't gained improved structure, and remains at a low-end chance to turn into a tropical depression this week. Its movement through the Yucatan Peninsula will hinder any formation efforts, and indications show only a limited opportunity to increase when it reaches the southwestern Gulf later this week. Regardless of development trends, the system will not pose a risk to the Big Bend region.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a series of waves carry varied strengthening potential this week. The strongest of these is a wave about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands, mainly moving west to west-northwest. Long-range forecast guidance points to a high chance to see gradual development of this wave into a depression in the next two to five days. The system is projected to move west-northwest for several days before a possible turn more toward the northwest and north. Most signals show the system staying off the U.S. east coast, though long-term forecasts are prone to daily adjustments considering new forecast model data.

A system farther east, just coming off the west Africa coast, also has some modest chances for future development, with ample time to monitor its progress.