The setup (Saturday–Sunday)
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9) is consolidating north of eastern Cuba and the Bahamas and is expected to be named Tropical Storm Imelda Saturday into Sunday. Tropical Storm alerts have been posted in parts of the Bahamas and Florida's Atlantic coastline as the system gains strength. Official guidance highlights heavy rain and strengthening as the center lifts north for the Bahamas.
Early-week approach to the U.S. (Monday–Wednesday)
Models brings Imelda near the Southeast coast—with South Carolina favored for the more of the impacts as far as the U.S. goes—even if the center remains offshore. South Carolina can expect a corridor of squally rain bands, gusty winds, rough surf, and pockets of minimal coastal flooding during high tides. Dangerous marine conditions with strong rip currents are expected along portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
***Big Bend and South Georgia impacts to our local neighborhoods will be minimal. As the path tracks now, most of our wind will be northeasterly- keeping our neighborhoods drier with only isolated chances of rain. Most impacts stay to the Atlantic coastline from Florida to the Carolinas.
Key hazards along the Atlantic coastline
- Carolina flooding rain: Repeated bands in South Carolina could stack up several inches in a few days, with locally higher totals near the coast and under persistent bands. Urban/poor-drainage areas are most vulnerable.
- Wind: Tropical-storm-force gusts are possible near the immediate coast of Florida (Atlantic), Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines. Winds will be strongest where bands pivot onshore or if the center noses closer to land.
- Coastal effects: Large, long-period swells, high surf, and rip current hazards along the Atlantic coastline from Florida to the Carolinas. Some minor local coastal flooding around South Carolina- especially near high-tide.
Why a U.S. landfall isn’t guaranteed
A strong area of high-pressure ridging over the Northeast next week looks poised to complicate Imelda’s path. Current thinking is the ridge and surrounding steering currents could stall or nudge the storm just offshore, keeping the core offshore while still funneling rain/wind into the coastline. Interaction with powerful Hurricane Humberto to the east adds an additional “pull” that can favor an offshore stall or eventual turn away from the coast.
Bottom line: close pass with multi-day Atlantic coast impacts is more likely than a clean inland track, but small shifts matter.
Most plausible scenarios (subject to track wobble)
- Near-shore stall (most likely): Center lingers just off South Carolina Monday–Wednesday, maximizing coastal flooding rain, surf, and onshore wind in the Carolinas; inland impacts taper with distance from the coast. Some South Carolina excess rain in mountains could mean localized minor flooding.
- Glancing landfall/brush: A nudge west brings the core onshore South Carolina's coastline with broader wind/rain footprint into the Coastal Plain/Appalachian foothills- well north of our neighborhoods in the Big Bend and South Georgia.
- Turn out to sea: Stronger influence from Humberto/upper-level pattern pulls Imelda away sooner, trimming U.S. impacts—still breezy with rough surf.
Timing at a glance
- Sunday: Imelda continues north as Tropical Storm; Bahamas and South Florida weather deteriorates.
- Monday- Storm passes east of Florida's Atlantic coastline creating high surf, periods of rain and wind for Florida's and Georgia's eastern coastline
- Tuesday- Imelda expected to strengthen into hurricane status in open Atlantic waters offshore of the Georgia- well away from land
- Tuesday–Wednesday: Highest period of U.S. coastal impacts along Atlantic coastline including Carolinas → highest risk zone focuses on the South Carolina
Confidence & what could change
Confidence is moderate on an approach to the South Carolina coastline- keeping offshore of Florida's Atlantic coast; lower on exact track/intensity as the storm nears the South Carolina coastline due to ongoing organization and the evolving ridge and Humberto interplay. Slight shifts will make a difference in wind and rain swaths. We will keep you updated with the latest changes on-air and online. Right now, we are still expecting NO major impacts to our neighborhoods in the Big Bend or South Georgia.
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