First To Know WeatherHurricane Center


What You Need to Know about Atlantic disturbance "95L"

Disturbance 95L pattern factors (06/27/2024)
Posted at 5:57 PM, Jun 27, 2024

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) — A batch of tropical moisture is moving quickly along the southern latitudes of the eastern North Atlantic waters late this week. It originated from a cluster of unsettled weather from the western side of the African continent. It's developed in similar fashion to what we typically see in the August and September phases of the hurricane season.

Dubbed "Invest 95L," the disturbance is being investigated for additional strengthening, aided by specific computer forecast modeling, on top of the usual methods of guidance from global computerized forecasting systems.

There is general agreement in the various sources of computer models on the near- and mid-range track of the disturbance, maintaining a west to west-northwest path into the Caribbean as it rolls around the southern edge of a broad high-pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. This track would take the system over waters that are quite warm for this time in the season, and upper-level winds are not incredibly active.

There is a wide zone of drier air to the north of the disturbance, which can factor into how gradual any organization can be. Tropical lows need deep moisture to remain intact and dry air sources would impede on its strengthening process. Also, a fast speed of movement can affect the system's ability to build into a stronger cyclone.

As with any long-range tropical system forecast, certainty about strength and location projections lose precision and are prone to wide margins of errors and vast changes from day to day. With that said, there is no solid solution on how strong this system can become, or where it will ultimately go.

The current belief is that the low will move swiftly through the Caribbean this weekend and most of next week, staying well south of the U.S. through Independence Day, with improving chances to become a tropical storm between now and the end of the weekend.

The long-range track will depend on how strong the Atlantic high is at the end of next week, and how high-pressure systems over the North American continent are positioned.

First to Know Weather will continue to analyze forecast trends in the days to come and determine how those changing trends affect our local weather pattern for the Fourth of July weekend and beyond.