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Tropical Storm Dorian Explainer: Dorian's hurdles across the Caribbean

Posted at 5:30 PM, Aug 27, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-27 17:30:29-04

(WTXL) — Now for Dorian to become a Florida problem, the storm has to get through the Caribbean.

As First Alert Meteorologist Reid Lybarger shows us the chance of impact to Florida is all about survival.

With Tropical Storm Dorian in the Caribbean there is potential for it to become a threat to Florida. Before that can happen there are still a few hurdles it must overcome.

Aside from dry air and wind shear, the island of Hispaniola is historically known for weakening developing tropical systems. Thus presenting the biggest challenge in Dorian's intensity forecast.

A track further to the left of the cone would lead to more land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican republic, in turn weakening, and potentially leading to the demise of Dorian.

A track further to the right of the cone would lead to less land interaction and more time over water, or a lower elevation terrain like Puerto Rico, which would limit Dorian's weakening and likely lead to a higher threat for Florida.

While a handful of hurricane models are forecasting a track toward us here in the Sunshine State, there is still too much uncertainty in that time frame. After Thursday, we should have a better idea of potential impacts after Dorian passes through those islands.