TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The decades-long general trend of active Atlantic hurricane seasons isn't necessarily expected to subside this year.
While overall expectations are lower than the pre-season projections for 2024, some of the factors that fuel frequent tropical storm development will be in the formula this season:
Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf regions are running a bit warmer than average.
The global "El Nino" pattern is in a "neutral" phase, which tends to create slightly weaker upper-level wind flow. Faster wind shear high in the atmosphere would usually disrupt storm formation.
The number of tropical waves coming from the African monsoon pattern is forecast to be higher, giving more opportunities for these waves of moisture to grow into tropical cyclones. The path they take may be a bit more north in the tropical Atlantic than the recent past.
All of these, and more, are considered in NOAA's prediction of between 13 and 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
This falls in line with the average from 19 other research and forecasting firms this season, calculated to 16 named, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major.
But as we've learned in the not-so-distant past, the most important number is 1. One storm is all it takes to leave a huge affect locally.
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