Friday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/26/2022)
There are two main points of long-term interest in the tropical waters:
- A faint moisture wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea Friday evening is fighting against nearby dry air, so its current development chance is quite slim. However, if the system emerges through the dry air, it can enter a more-favorable zone for strengthening toward the middle of next week in the western Caribbean. Expectations for further development depend on the system overcoming the dry patch. Forecast trends indicate modest intensification possible near the Yucatan Peninsula or the western Gulf about a week from now. More forecast data will be considered in the days ahead for changes to the pattern.
- More moisture sources are moving west beyond the Cape Verde Islands. One vigorous system is moving west with better form late Friday, and a long-range 30% chance for the system to become a tropical depression by next week. The air in the path of the system is not as dry as it is currently, so projections show a decent chance for the disturbance to grow into a tropical depression next week as it moves generally toward the west-northwest. There is adequate time to monitor future forecast trends and data related to this system to properly gauge any effects it would have to Caribbean islands or the U.S. mainland, which won't be clearly known for at least another week.