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Friday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/19/2022)

tropics check PTC 4
Gulf disturbance development chance (2pm 08/19/2022)
Posted at 4:11 PM, Aug 19, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-19 16:27:52-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The persistent wave of moisture that crossed the Yucatan Peninsula has reached the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Warm waters there are helping to increase its chance to develop into a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center will release its first forecast cone of possible movement for this disturbance later today as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The system will continue on a northwest path, with eventual landfall on the eastern Mexican coastline. The moisture with the system will remain intact and raise heavy rain risks for western Gulf states.

A few disturbances exist in the tropical eastern side of the North Atlantic, but none of them currently have good chances for future development. As dry air decreases next week, systems will have improve chances for forming into better-developed disturbances with further strengthening possible in a couple of cases. It's a bit early for precise expectations, though.