First To Know Weather

Actions

Friday evening First To Know Tropics check (08/18/2023)

Atlantic disturbances formation chances (4pm 08/18/2023)
Future Gulf disturbance formation chances (4pm 08/18/2023)
Posted

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Tropical activity is picking up ahead of the typical most-active part of the season in September.

Several disturbances are highlighted. Most of them are in the open waters of the Atlantic near and east of the Lesser Antilles. Most of these areas have varied levels of intensification chances. The one farthest out to sea has the higher chance for development, but it is projected to move northwest and remain an ocean storm.

Another zone of moisture east of Barbados is forecast to move west to northeast early next week into the central Caribbean Sea before a possible northwest turn occurs.

The area of unsettled conditions that will be closest to our region is a batch of moisture over the southeastern Bahamas this weekend, moving west through the Florida peninsula Sunday. It will continue to move west-northwest Monday and beyond, taking its moisture in that direction. The Gulf waters are quite warm and gradual strengthening can occur. But if that happens, it will be moving away from the Big Bend region. Therefore, there are no adverse effects expected here from that system, regardless of development.

The other areas mentioned also are of little to no risk. As conditions evolve, we'll update and advise accordingly.