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First to Know: An unsettled weekend pattern possible

The Weather Ahead this week (01/17/2023)
Posted at 3:49 PM, Jan 17, 2023
and last updated 2023-01-17 16:01:30-05

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A pattern shift underway this week will give the Florida/Georgia line region more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

The question that remains is: What is the chance for severe storms in our region?

Our area will be sandwiched between a zone of high pressure near the Florida peninsula, and low-pressure disturbances that will ride across the Deep South on a few occasions in the next seven days.

Our first batch of shower chances will reach a higher amount of coverage Thursday, when a cold front glances across the state line, causing a few areas of showers and rain. They are not expected to be strong, and thunderstorms will be few and far between.

A modest amount of cooling is expected Friday and Saturday, but the active upper-level air and moisture flow will bring areas of clouds into the region frequently.

A second cold front will advance into the Deep South region Saturday. It is forecast to reach our area late Saturday or Sunday. This second front will provide the best chance for more widespread rain and thunderstorm coverage.

Thunderstorms can be stronger or severe if warmer air pushes deeper into the region from the Gulf. There is no clear signal making severe weather chances definite for the state line counties, but trends in the forecast pattern will be followed in the days ahead to determine how real a severe thunderstorm risk is for the region. Regardless, areas of rain appear more probable for the Saturday night and Sunday time frame.

The last round of showers and storms can approach by Tuesday of the following week, based on current forecast guidance.

We are in the time of year when organized severe-weather events that lead to tornadoes tend to occur in the Deep South and the tri-state area. Severe storms are not guaranteed for our local counties this week, but disturbances anticipated over the next seven days can keep our weather outcomes a bit more unsettled than not.