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Carolina university hurricane forecast joins quieter season crowd

Hurricane forecast generic
Posted at 4:05 PM, May 13, 2014
and last updated 2014-05-13 16:05:00-04

CONWAY, S. C. (WTXL) -- In the lead-up to the start of the Atlantic hurricane season June 1, researchers at various universities and firms have been pointing to a season that will feature a lower number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

One of the latest outlooks, released by the Hurricane Genesis and Outlook team at Coastal Carolina University, predicts nine to 11 named storms forming in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and/or the Gulf of Mexico, with five of those becoming hurricanes, and one hurricane reaching major strength of Category 3 to 5.

This level of activity is described by team members as "below to near normal."  A hurricane season in the Atlantic basin has an average activity level of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

According to the CCU scientists, their forecasting model uses numerous calculations that also provides insight into possible landfall areas of storms.  In its seasonal outlook release, they believe the most likely situation is that the contiguous United States will miss a direct hurricane strike.  The team began providing landfall outlooks last year.