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Atlantic disturbance moving west; tropical storm development likely

Potential tropical cyclone Two forecast track (11pm 06/27/2022)
Posted at 5:16 PM, Jun 27, 2022
and last updated 2022-06-27 22:47:53-04
Monday evening First To Know Tropics check (06/27/2022)

A disturbance that's been tracked for several days has developed enough to be labeled a "potential tropical cyclone" in the tropical Atlantic Ocean Monday afternoon. The system — with an expectation to become a tropical storm — is over 700 miles from the island of Trinidad, moving west-northwest at 18 mph. The system will likely take the name Bonnie once it becomes a full-fledged and better-organized tropical low.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a weaker blob of moisture is northwest of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two with a minor chance for development in the coming days as it moves west-northwest. Forecast indicators show it staying on the weak side.

Atlantic tropical system formation chance (4pm 06/27/2022)
Atlantic tropical system formation chance (4pm 06/27/2022)
Gulf tropical development chance (4pm 06/27/2022)
Gulf tropical development chance (4pm 06/27/2022)

In the north-central Gulf, moisture connected to a stalled front is highlighted for slight chances to develop low pressure that will likely move to the west or southwest, generally toward Texas with extra moisture and rain coverage there.

Through the next seven days, there are no expectations for tropical storm-related effect in the eastern Gulf or the Big Bend region.