MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The late-night update from the National Hurricane Center depicts Tropical Storm Hermine to continue to strengthen, possibly becoming a low-end Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast.
The center of Tropical Storm Hermine is located about 300 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, moving to the north-northeast at 10 mph. Peak winds as of late Wednesday night increased to 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The intensification forecast projects a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds possible Thursday evening, just offshore of the Apalachicola River.
Because of the higher potential for hurricane conditions near the coast, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coastline from Mexico Beach to the Suwannee River, along with interior Big Bend counties. Hurricane-force gusts, along with steady tropical storm-force winds, are possible in this zone within the next 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for many southwest and south-central Georgia.
A Hurricane Watch means wind gusts reaching 74 mph may be encountered in the watch zone within 48 hours. Conditions within the tropical storm warning may include gusts of 39 to 73 mph within 36 hours.
The system had been stationary, but has been exhibiting a faster move to the north Wednesday afternoon. As a cold front starts to enter the Southeastern United States Thursday, the storm will be forced to turn more to the northeast, in the direction of the Florida Gulf coast.
The storm remains over water temperatures above 80°, which would typically support further intensification. Upper-level winds in the northeast Gulf are also still moderately fast, which may slow the rate of intensification slightly.
Higher surf is expected in the Apalachee Bay region, increasing coastal water levels, and causing gusty, squally conditions. An outside chance for the storm to reach minimal hurricane level exists before probable landfall.
Storm surge levels are forecast to reach two to six feet above normal water levels during high tide. High tides are forecast to occur in the early morning and mid-afternoon hours Thursday. This would cause significant overwash of water on coastal locations.
Abundant moisture associated with the system will likely translate into heavy rain for the peninsula, the Big Bend, and portions of south Georgia. Estimates range from three to six inches in a general sense, with some areas in the eastern Big Bend possibly exceeding eight inches or more.
Severe weather, including the risk for tornadoes, exists to the east of where the center of the storm reaches land. This would place most of the eastern Big Bend under a slight severe storm risk.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate along coastal areas as early as Thursday morning, with increasing clouds, rain, and wind gusts. These conditions will spread northward and inland through the afternoon and evening. According to current projections, the possible peak of the storm activity may focus on Thursday night through the first half of Friday.
The WTXL ABC 27 Storm Team is on duty throughout the course of this tropical weather situation. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and watch Weather NOW channel 27.3 (Comcast channel 209 in most areas) for frequent updates and fresh forecast information.
