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FSU researchers foresee active Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Season
Posted at 6:46 PM, May 30, 2013
and last updated 2014-05-02 08:29:14-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Add scientists at Florida State University to the growing chorus of forecasters expecting an above-average hurricane season.

The Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies released their expectations for the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season, which begins Saturday.

COAPS calls for a high probability of experiencing 15 named systems of tropical storm strength, with 10 of them reaching hurricane status.

This is the COAPS scientists' fifth annual forecast release, based on a data set of 50 seasonal atmospheric forecasts using ocean water temperatures predicted by a NOAA climate model.

Associate research scientist Tim LaRow also cites evidence of less upper-level wind shear with the absence of the El Nino weather pattern as a reason of higher-than-usual tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea.  Less wind shear provides a more-favorable atmospheric environment for sustaining the structure and development of tropical disturbances.