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Wednesday Morning Tropics check (09/18/2013)

Western Caribbean disturbance satellite image (11/05/2015)
Posted at 7:43 AM, Sep 18, 2013
and last updated 2014-05-02 08:21:38-04

The tropics stay active this morning with Tropical Storm Humberto still spinning in the northern Atlantic Ocean. As of the 5am advisory, Humberto was struggling to stay organized with winds just at 40 mph. Over the next few days Humberto is expected to lose it’s tropical characteristics and continue moving northward into the northern Atlantic, where it will be no threat to land.

 A new tropical disturbance is also starting to organize just to the east of the Yucatan peninsula. The National Hurricane Center has given it a 70% chance of development into a tropical system in the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days. It will move westward over the Yucatan peninsula today and emerge into the Bay of Campeche, where warm waters and light upper level winds will encourage some development. The storm is expected to move slowly into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where it will feed excess moisture to our region this weekend and contribute to the possibility of heavy rainfall on Sunday. If the storm does develop to tropical storm strength, it will be named Jerry.

 Otherwise, there are no other areas of concern in the tropics.