MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The tropical disturbance straddling the Greater Antilles, called "Invest 99L" in meteorological circles, keeps providing challenges in future strength and impact projections for Florida and the Gulf region.
Dry air and modest upper-level winds near the system Thursday have contributed to continued disorganization, further delaying any efforts for the low to intensify. Waves of clouds and rain are detached from the main low-pressure circulation.
There has been considerable consistency in the belief of the disturbance's ongoing west-northwest trend of movement. This would carry the system over warm waters around the Bahamas, which could fuel some strengthening as long as upper winds decrease and the low develops more clouds and storms around it. High pressure situated to the north of the disturbance would block any attempt to turn to the north.
Areas of rain and occasional breezes are becoming more possible in the southern reaches of the Florida peninsula, either as a tropical wave, a depression, or perhaps a tropical storm. If this situation pans out, its movement over land would stall development and even trigger a time of weakening.
Forecast trends have been suggesting a possible move into the Gulf, once the system crosses the southern half of Florida. (The assortment of track guidance models shown above does not account for strength forecasts, only possible movement.) Very warm waters and a generally light upper-air environment would support an intensification mode.
Questions remain regarding movement and development possibilities early next week. The high-pressure area over the mid-Atlantic may remain in place, guiding the tropical low's path. If there is noticeable weakening in the high, a turn to the northwest is possible while the low is in the Gulf. Neither of these, or other, forecast scenarios are clear-cut at this point, raising the level of difficulty of providing precise forecasts with this system through next week.
FACT: The tropical system is still ragged and struggling to gain organization.
FACT: Very warm ocean water lie in its possible path, which can support further development.
FACT: The chance for rain impacts in south Florida from this system has increased.
FACT: Forecast trends have leaned more into the possibility of the system tracking into the southeast or eastern Gulf early next week.
FACT: Waters in the Gulf are sufficiently warm for intensification of any tropical system.
FACT: Even with the higher uncertainty existing in this forecast setup, it's wise and prudent to check up on hurricane season preparedness plans and consider further action as the forecast changes over the rest of this week and the weekend.
