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UPDATE: Matthew Barrels into Caribbean, Getting Stronger

Matthew forecast track (11pm 09/28/2016)
Posted
and last updated

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A better-organized Tropical Storm Matthew brushed through the Windward Islands Wednesday as an intensifying cyclone.

The center of the system is located about 100 miles from the island of St. Lucia, moving west at 18 mph.

The peak sustained winds late Wednesday night were clocked at 65 mph.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will keep Matthew on a westerly course through the rest of the week.  A northerly turn is projected by the weekend as Matthew reaches the edge of the Atlantic high.

The main question is how soon the storm -- which would likely be a hurricane at that point -- makes that curve northward. 

If the system keeps moving west over the next five days and delays the forecast turn, it could mean more of a direct impact in the western Caribbean and possibly the southeastern Gulf region early next week.

An earlier turn to the north, which is what many computer forecast guidance tracks are showing late Wednesday, would direct Matthew toward Cuba, the Bahamas, and areas in the far western Atlantic, near or offshore of the United States east coast.

It is reasonable to maintain a close watch on near- and long-range conditions and forecast trends, in case inevitable shifts in the outlook cause a significant change in threat levels in the Gulf and the western Atlantic regions.