TALLAHASSEE (WTXL) -- Joaquin is now a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph and is moving southwest at 6 mph.
As Joaquin continues to move over warm waters intensification is likely. Most of the computer models have it reaching at least category 2 status, which is 92 mph sustained winds, and a few have it reaching category 3 status, which is 115mph sustained winds. Over the next few days it will intensify but as it continues to push more towards the north the wind shear gets stronger and is expected to decrease in intensity back to a category 1 hurricane.
Joaquin continues to move west-southwestward due to an area of high pressure to its north. This motion is expected for the next day or so but Joaquin will slowly turn westward as the high pressure begins to weaken. However by the weekend the forecast has Joaquin turning and moving northwestward due to a low pressure system that will dominate the southeastern U.S. Most of the computer models agree that within the next 4 days or so it will turn towards the north and make landfall near Virgina by Monday.
However, because the environmental conditions are complex and the computer models are not consistent the confidence in the track for the late period forecast is very low. With the current information it is to soon to say what impact, if any, Joaquin will have on the U.S.
There is a large area of clouds and thunderstorms hundreds of miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system has become better organized and now has a 70% chance of cyclonic formation.
