First Alert Weather


Tuesday morning Tropics check (08/22/2017)

Computer Model Tracks (08/22/2017)
Tuesday morning Tropics check (08/22/2017)
Tuesday morning Tropics check (08/22/2017)
Posted at 5:00 AM, Aug 22, 2017
and last updated 2017-08-22 02:23:24-04

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- Two areas of interest continue to be closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center. While neither pose a direct threat to the Big Bend and South Georgia, parts of the country (Texas) may see impacts from a tropical cyclone later this week. On that note, we'll start with what was once "Tropical Storm Harvey".

The tropical wave associated with the remnants of Harvey is currently east of Belize and southeast of the Yucatán peninsula. It has a 90% chance of re-development into a tropical cyclone within the next five days. In the next two days, the chance is at 70%. The same message applies no matter how you look at it: This will likely become a tropical depression.

Models have hinted at a north shift in the track of this system once it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Today, there is much higher consensus that the northward turn will occur. This means that Texas may be in the cross-hairs of a tropical system BEFORE Friday.

In the meantime, the tropical wave over the Bahamas that has struggled through it's Atlantic travels, has a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone within the next five days. The wave is expected to bring widespread rain activity to the Florida peninsula, but tropical development should occur as the wave moves AWAY from Florida.

You can catch the forecast on ABC 27 News starting at 5:00 each morning, as well as ABC 27 News at Noon. Chief Meteorologist Casanova Nurse has your forecast at 5:00, 5:30, 6:00, and 11:00 this evening.

Plus, you can get the First Alert forecast every 10 minutes on Channel 27.3 Weather NOW.

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