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Tuesday evening Tropics check (10/21/2014)

Gulf disturbance radar/satellite image (10/21/2014)
Posted at 2:56 PM, Oct 21, 2014
and last updated 2014-10-21 14:56:00-04

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The low-pressure disturbance in the Bay of Campeche off the Mexican coastline remains somewhat raggedly organized Tuesday, but still capable of reaching tropical depression status over the next two to three days.  While the upper-level flow has hindered development slightly, those winds are forecast to relax, allowing for a window of opportunity for better organization.  The system is expected to move mainly to the east, in the direction of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strengthening would be halted once the system reaches the land mass, but leftover moisture will still track across the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits later this week.

From all indications, the system will remain well south of the Big Bend region through this week and should not pose any direct threat.

The swirl of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic near the Azores still has a slight chance to become a subtropical system, but its far distance will keep the system as only a point of interest to monitor, and not a risk to the United States.