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Tuesday evening Tropics check (09/11/2018)

Atlantic satellite image (2:00pm 09/21/2018)
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MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- Hurricane Florence in the western Atlantic continues on its west-northwest path, about a thousand miles from the Carolina coastline with peak winds of 140 mph.  It is moving west-northwest at 17 mph.  Florence will maintain its major-level strength through its projected landfall somewhere near the South or North Carolina shore. Devastating wind and storm surge is likely along the North Carolina shoreline, and flooding rain is possible inland in the mid-Atlantic states as the storm is projected to move slowly and erratically once over land.  

Florence's effects in the local area will be indirect, and mainly in the form of drier air and northerly winds (well below storm force), setting up a dry, warmer pattern for northern Florida and southern Georgia this weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic basin:

  • Hurricane Helene in the Cape Verde region is turning northwest to north in the near-term outlook, remaining in the open ocean waters and losing its strength.
  • Tropical Storm Isaac is moving west at 17 mph and is 670 miles east of the Lesser Antilles island chain. A drier atmosphere and some faster upper-level winds in the Caribbean are factors considered in a possible weakening trend by later this week, which may cause Isaac to struggle to regain hurricane strength.
  • A third area of moisture in the western Caribbean known as "Invest 95L" is moving west-northwest near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. As the upper winds near this system decrease in the next couple of days, the disturbance has decent chances to develop into a tropical depression or storm before heading toward the Texas coastline, with very warm western Gulf waters in its path.  It is not expected to have a direct impact on the Big Bend's weather pattern.