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Tuesday evening Tropics check (09/27/2016)

Atlantic sat image 09/27/2016
Posted at 5:00 PM, Sep 27, 2016
and last updated 2016-09-27 13:24:48-04

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A vigorous wave of disturbed weather moving west toward the Lesser Antilles island chain in the eastern Caribbean has continued to gain some organization, but after inspection from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft Tuesday afternoon, the system was not formed well enough to classify it as a tropical depression.  However, conditions remain favorable with warm ocean waters and limited upper shear, and further development of this system is forecast in the near-term future.

The system will take the name Matthew if it reaches tropical storm strength.  It is projected to continue moving west into the Caribbean through the end of the week, then a possible jog to the north in the long-range outlook.  Most indications show the system continue to grow stronger during the extended forecast range, but the movement of the system beyond the weekend, and where a northerly turn may occur, are quite unclear and uncertain.

Elsewhere, a weak disturbance in the far western Gulf is likely to move into the Rio Grande Valley region, and further intensification is unlikely.