MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- More attention is being drawn toward a still-unnamed, somewhat disorganized, tropical low (officially referred to as "Invest 99L" for the time being) that's been moving through the northern Leeward Islands and heading toward Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours.
Considering many factors, including the typical peak in tropical development frequency this time of year along with the historic hurricane drought for Florida and the United States, the specter of a landfalling system in Florida has piqued the interests of many residents and forecasters alike.
FACT: Hurricane Hunter aircraft have flown into the system Wednesday and were unable to find a well-defined, tight low-pressure circulation, which is a vital element in any developing tropical system. But, occasional tropical storm-force wind gusts were observed in flight.
FACT: The system is approaching a zone of very warm ocean water temperatures along the northern Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.
FACT: Upper-level winds are rather weak in this zone. The lack of upper wind shear is usually a factor that favors some development of a tropical system.
FACT: Forecast guidance tracks of several different types have been persistent for a few days in leading the system on a continued west-northwest path, generally in the direction of southeast Florida by this weekend.
FACT: Forecast model data regarding strength of the system have been far from consistent, ranging from a faint low to a stronger hurricane. Also, the track forecasting for early next week widely varies, creating a broad range of scenarios for many Gulf Coast and Atlantic states.
There is increasing confidence that a disturbance will have an impact from the southeastern Bahamas into parts of the south Florida peninsula to close out this week. Beyond that time window, it's honestly anyone's guess. However, those who claim they know precisely where this storm will go early next week, and how strong it will be, are misguided and misguiding.
As the system develops further, forecasting efforts will improve and be refined with fresh information, which will help increase the quality of data. A better grasp of the system's longer-term future may be reached over the weekend.
There will also be smaller-scale factors that can make a huge difference, like when the system actually gains a closed-low circulation, where that forms, whether the low stays over water or moves over rugged terrain or patches of land, and where surrounding atmospheric features will be located as the system traverses west or northwesteward.
In the meantime, it's a prime time to review individual, family, or business hurricane preparedness and action plans, to make certain readiness levels are where they need to be. Our Severe Weather Guide can help you in those efforts.
