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Thursday evening Tropics check (09/15/2016)

Julia forecast track (5pm 09/15/2016)
Posted
and last updated

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- There are several areas of interest in the Atlantic basin in the usually active mid-September phase of the hurricane season:

  • Tropical Storm Ian is encountering stronger upper winds and colder North Atlantic surface water temperatures, which will lead to the system's demise as a tropical entity in the next couple of days.  It will continue to race northward over open waters.
  • After a period of weakening, Julia returns to tropical storm status while it swirls a short distance southeast of the South Carolina coastline.  It is detached from any strong steering flow, meaning the system will move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days.  Periods of squally conditions and heavy rain are forecast along the Georgia, South Carolina, and parts of the northeast Florida coastal zones.
  • Tropical Depression Twelve is a couple hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, tracking over the eastern Atlantic in a westward fashion.  Upper-level winds will be a little higher, which would stall development, but the long-range outlook does project the system becoming a tropical storm.
  • A disorganized disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will be impacted by modest upper wind shear, but it did gain some slight organization Thursday.  It is forecast to continue moving westward, with low-end chances for further development through Saturday.
  • Lastly for now, a moisture source still over the western African continent is forecast to emerge into the Cape Verde region and has long-range medium chances to encounter a strengthening phase.

The next names of the tropical storm list are Karl, Lisa, Matthew, and Nicole.