MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- Tropical Storm Nate strengthened slightly Thursday morning before moving over the coastal zones of Nicaragua and Honduras during the afternoon. The storm maintains 40-mph peak winds, and is moving north-northwest at 10 mph.
While Nate is over land, strengthening will be stalled. However, Friday, the forecast path takes the storm back over very warm western Caribbean waters for a few hours before possibly making another landfall, this time in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Over the weekend, Nate will likely emerge in the south-central Gulf of Mexico, where the best chances for intensification will occur with warm water temperatures and light upper-level winds. A stronger high over Florida will most likely prevent Nate from making a move toward Florida Saturday. Nate is expected to keep moving north as it approaches the central Gulf coast, possibly near Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama.
The timing of a turn to the northeast will be critical in determining impacts along the Gulf coast, including the Florida Big Bend. However, a direct landfall in the local region is quite unlikely under the current forecast scenario.
The system may be a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Gulf region, and is forecast to reach 80 mph peak winds before possible landfall.
Considering these, impacts for the Big Bend and southern Georgia counties include an increase in rain coverage, as early as Saturday afternoon, with chances for isolated cases of bands of heavy rain capable of producing brief waterspouts or tornadoes. This risk may be higher in western locations, depending on the eventual landfall point.
Occasional wind gusts offshore may reach near tropical storm force, while most inland areas should not encounter extremely high gusts.
Rain totals will range from up to two inches in the Suwannee Valley to three to five inches in western counties and the Panhandle.
More specific impact forecasts will be released as the form and the projected path of Nate become clearer Friday and Saturday.
